Betting football NCAA
January 28th College Football news ... Welcome to Betting football NCAA, the place that provides the college football bettor with everything he needs to score a profit over the long run.
Welcome to bettingfootballncaa.com, the place that provides the college football bettor with everything he needs to score a profit over the long run.
Whether you bet every Saturday throughout the fall or just bet on the Bowls, stopping by our site is a must in order to consistently handicap the games.
You will have access to all of the key trends, statistics and news by simply logging on throughout the football season.
College Football News
2015 Kentucky Derby Odds
Kentucky Derby week is one of the most thrilling times of the year. This race is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" for its approximate time length.
Check 2015 KY Derby Schedule May 1 and 24 at Sportsbook.com
Odds to Win 2015 Kentucky Derby
March Madness Bracket
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CFL Week 4 Betting Action
The CFL schedule rolls on with another three games from Week 4 on Friday and Saturday. The resurgent Argonauts host British Columbia, Edmonton and Winnipeg will get together with each team trying to end losing skids, and Saskatchewan, the league’s lone remaining unbeaten team, will be in Calgary for a tough contest versus the 2-1 Stampeders. Let’s take a look at the games, and the current prices according to Sportsbook.com.
British Columbia (-2, 47) at Toronto, Friday, 5:30 p.m., TSN
Seems strange to think about now, but just a few short weeks ago, oddsmakers had Toronto (2-1) as 13.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Calgary. The Argos’ lines have dropped in each successive week since, as they’ve managed to put together upset wins over Winnipeg and Calgary. The latter was a home game and they’ll be back in Toronto for a second straight week with this game against B.C. (1-2)
The Argos still aren't getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers though. They're at home and riding a two-game winning streak, while the Lions have lost two in a row. Yet, it is the Lions that are the favored team.
With the total set at 47, it could be a low-scoring game as neither team has been able to move the ball, the Argos are last with 287 yards of offense per game and Lions aren't much better with just 330. In addition, the B.C. defense ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring allowed (21.0) and yards per play allowed (6.7).
Most of the trend angles seem to favor B.C. here, as the Lions have been very good against opportunistic teams and bouncing back from losses…
• BRITISH COLUMBIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +0.75 per game or better since 1996. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.7, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• Buono is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 33.5, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Toronto has forced nine turnovers in the first three games and if it can continue that pace has a good shot at winning this one as well.
Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN
The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.
The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.
Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.
There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:
• WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.
Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.
Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.
Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this StatFox Power Trend:
• CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)
However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.
The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.
CFB: Champs Sports Bowl - Wisconsin vs. Miami (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
One of the bowls that was being tagged by experts on ESPN as an intriguing matchup was the Champs Sports Bowl, pitting Wisconsin vs. Miami. That game comes Tuesday night from Orlando. Apparently bettors at Sportsbook.com aren’t seeing the same type of competitive contest, as 75% of them have backed the Hurricanes, moving them from 2-point opening line favorites to now minus 3.5-points.
Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.
This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.
Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.
Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.
Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 58 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.
Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.
The StatFox Power Line shows Miami by 4.
CFB: Recent Bowl Game Betting Happenings
For almost every one of the 34 bowl games, we’ve been given at least two weeks to prepare. In that sense, we might as well dig up as much as we can in search of that one golden nugget for each. In this piece, we’ll take a look at some general bowl game trends recent years, then dive into some more team specific trends for the ’09-10 bowl games. View the current lines for all the games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.
Here are some highlights of past bowl game action in terms of Home/Road, Favorite/Underdog, and Totals results.
- After being an UNDERDOG dominated event in the early part of the decade, FAVORITES have turned the tables in bowl games the last two years, going 17-15 ATS in ’08-09 & 18-14 ATS the prior season, good for 55% ATS. During that same span, UNDER has been the winning total wager in 36 of 66 games, also 55%.
- In BCS games of the last two years, FAVORITES hold a 6-4 SU edge but the ATS ledger is split 5/5.
- FAVORITES have held the biggest edge over the last two seasons in post-New Year’s non-BCS games, going 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS.
- Prior to the ‘07-08 bowl season, a distinct pattern had been forming in which UNDERDOGS were dominating the bowl games between the two holidays, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. However, in the last two seasons, that pattern has reversed itself, with FAVORITES going 16-13 ATS in those games.
- There were seven games in the ’08-09 bowl season that matched BCS-level conference schools against non-BCS opponents. In those games, the big boys took care of business with a 6-1 SU & ATS record. The only loss Utah’s Sugar Bowl upset of Alabama. Over the last two bowl seasons now, BCS schools own a 12-5 ATS mark in such matchups.
- Double-digit underdogs weren’t as effective as usual last season in bowl games but still managed to split four games against the spread. Overall, these heavy pups are 35-25-2 ATS, 58.3%, since 1992. The opening lines for the ‘09-10 bowl season show just three different games with pointspreads of 10-points or more.
- Concerning totals, 21 of last year’s 34 games went UNDER the total. In fact, in the games that were expected to be the most high scoring, or those with posted totals of 51 or higher, the UNDER was 16-6.
Here are some angles digging deeper into the “quality” of the bowl series. I have broken the database of past bowl games into five different categories.
BCS Bowl Games
- Dating back to ’04, UNDERDOGS own a sizeable 17-10 ATS edge in the last five bowl game seasons.
- The most likely FAVORITES to cover in BCS bowl games are those laying 5-points or less, 11-7 ATS in the L18
- The SEC owns a 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 BCS bowl games, best of any league
Post New Year’s Day Low Level Bowl Games
- FAVORITES dominate the late season lower tier bowl games, 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in the L11. Eight of the 11 games in this group were decided by 18-points or more.
- The bigger the FAVORITE in this category, the bigger the chance for a blowout. Chalk of 6-points or more from this set of games is 6-1 ATS in the L7.
- MAC teams are the most frequent victim in the post-New Year’s Day low level bowl games, 1-5 ATS.
Christmas thru New Year’s Eve Bowl Games
- In last year’s post-Christmas, pre-New Year’s bowl season, 11 of 15 games went UNDER the total.
- Dating back to ’98, UNDERDOGS own a huge 96-55-3 ATS (64%) edge in this grouping of bowl games. However, as noted earlier, FAVORITES have sliced the gap in the last two years.
- Double-digit UNDERDOGS are a near automatic play during this portion of the bowl season, 16-3 ATS since ’98. There could be two in place for ’09 if the lines in the Boston College & Stanford games climb a bit before kickoff.
Premium Post-New Year’s Bowl Games
- The Premium Post-New Year’s Bowl Games are those most likely to go UNDER the total, 35-23 (60%) since ’96. These games typically include the Outback, Gator, Capital One, and Cotton Bowl games.
- Interestingly, in these Premium Games with higher pointspreads, or those 7-points or greater, the OVER is 14-10 since ’92.
- The OUTRIGHT winner is a nearly automatic pointspread winner in this category of bowl games, 58-7-2 ATS since ’92.
- Dating back to ’02, FAVORITES own a significant edge of 33-7 SU & 25-15 ATS (60%) in the pre-Christmas Day bowl games.
- Small FAVORITES, or those of -3.5 or less, have been particularly dominant in pre-Christmas Day bowl games over the last seven years, 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS. For ’09, there were four teams fitting that bill as of presstime, Rutgers, Southern Miss, Oregon St, and California.
- Oddsmakers have done a fine job indicating the tempo of these pre-Christmas Day bowl games. In those with totals of 63.5 or higher, 12 of the L13 games have gone OVER the total, producing 82.1 PPG. The Nevada-SMU game could prove to be a shootout.
Does how a team is playing at the end of the regular season have any bearing on how they do in their bowl game. I’ve heard arguments on both sides and have seen completely varying results on this subject. In any case, here are the hottest and coldest of the 68 teams taking part in this year’s bowl game lineup. Keep track of how these teams do, and if you see a pattern forming either way, take advantage.
The HOT Teams Heading into the Bowl Games
* TEMPLE won eight of 11 games against the spread in '09
* UCF was 9-2 ATS in '09, including 4-0 ATS in its L4
* MIDDLE TENN ST comes into its bowl game on a 6-game SU & ATS winning streak
* OREGON ST closed the season on a 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS surge
* NEVADA was 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 PPG
* OHIO U, GEORGIA TECH, and TROY all won eight of their L10 games ATS
* VIRGINIA TECH swept its L4 opponents SU & ATS, yielding just 9.5 PPG
* OHIO ST was 9-2 ATS after its season opening narrow win over Navy, allowing just 10.8 PPG
* CONNECTICUT was the nation's top spread covering team in '09, 10-2 ATS
* TCU was 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS down the stretch, winning by 36.6 PPG
The COLD Teams Heading into the Bowl Games
* UCLA was just 3-6 SU & ATS in its L9 games of the season
* BYU was just 3-7 ATS in its L10 regular season games
* Following its season opening rout win, USC went on to lose nine of its L11 ATS
* TEXAS A&M made a bowl game despite winning just three of its L9 games
* After starting 7-0 ATS, IDAHO finished the season on a 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS skid
* MISSOURI was just 2-6 ATS in its L8 games
* AUBURN was just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its L6 lined games
* FLORIDA ST was just 3-9 ATS this season
* S FLORIDA received a bowl bid despite going 2-5 SU & ATS in its L7 games
* MICHIGAN ST was just 1-4-1 ATS in a season-ending swoon
For more great bowl game trends, predictions, previews, and forecasts, be sure to pick up a copy of the 2009-10 StatFox Edge Bowl Game Handicapping Guide, or click on the TEAM STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS pages.